User talk:Ryan1000
Welcome Hi, welcome to Hurricane Wiki! Thanks for your edit to the Forum:2010 Atlantic hurricane season page. Please leave a message on my talk page if I can help with anything! -- SkyFury (Talk) 02:16, August 8, 2010 :Sorry I didn't check here, but thanks! I have a few questions about hurricanes that I still don't know about, and I would like to ask those to you. Ryan1000 20:51, September 30, 2010 (UTC) Hey Hey! Want to join Hurricane Center Wiki? We are taking volunteers, and I'm inviting you to be a member. Just tell me or Atomic7732 what you want to do. Thanks! :Well, I guess so. It issues unofficial warnings on storms; I'd like to join it just for the fun of it, I guess, if that's the point. Ryan1000 12:59, October 10, 2010 (UTC) Re: A few questions Sorry I didn't get back to you sooner, I've been super busy. A lot of the surprises you're referring to, Vince for example, are just freak occurances. Everything just happened to come together at just the right time. For Vince, there had to have been a pretty weak or shallow baroclinic zone along with unusually warm water temperatures for that low to attain tropical characteristics. The post-season reports on NHC's website will probably tell you a lot more about what led to these occurances than I can. As far as Audrey goes, I do know that water temperatures in June of 1957 were as much as a full degree warmer than normal. That must mean that there was a crapload of shear dominating the Atlantic that season because besides Audrey, the Atlantic was just dead. As for the biggest surprise, that's an interesting question. So many crazy things have happened, it's hard to single out just one. And with a lot of the freak occurances in the historical record, it's difficult or impossible to determine if they really did happen. My favorite freak occurance has to be Hurricane Faith's expedition to the North Pole in 1966. Best anybody can tell, Faith didn't lose tropical characteristics until it hit the Faroe Islands! Are you kidding me? That's 62N latitude and just 200 miles from the Prime Meridian! That's about the same latitude as Anchorage, Alaska. The Faroe Islands are the gateway to the Norwegian Sea. Summer temperatures rarely get out of the fifties. To me, that's in its own category of ridiculous. Above 40N, the Atlantic is a hostile place occupied by frigid waters, apocalyptic wind shear and monster extratropical cyclones that would love to gobble up a puny little hurricane. What Faith did defies belief and I'm sure more than one respected meteorologist will say it never happened. Maybe it didn't, but that's what the official record says. If the official record is anywhere close to right, Faith takes the cake. Simply astounding. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:21, October 13, 2010 (UTC) :I cannot believe I forgot Faith. That storm took the longest hurricane track in recorded history, longer than even John's of 1994. Faith must have been moving like a nascar driver in the north Atlantic, at like, 100 miles an hour, driving past any and all non-tropical storms in the north Atlantic. The 1938 "long island express" also rocketed in speed, but unfortunately, that thing happened in New England, ''at land. Had Faith been heading toward land at that speed, it would take three minutes, tops to pass by any single location. Faith must have had a lot of "Faith" to go that far north. Audrey must have occured in a time when shear was rather low in June, like with Alma in 1966, but Carrie also dominated the Atlantic later in '57, and that might seem against what you said about there being tons of shear in the Atlantic. As for me, my weirdest favorite example of a storm was Cyclone Catarina in 2004. Catarina was a once-in-a millenium kind of storm storm. Since when do Atlantic storms look toward Brazil? That was a storm that defied almost all logic for tropical cyclones and I wouldn't look forward to a storm like that happening in hundreds of years to come. The south Atlantic and southeastern Pacific are full of very cold waters, they are the equivalent of space for tropical cyclones in terms of dry air, and there's no ITCZ for storms to form there. Who knows how that little Joker came up in the deck of cards. Catarina was a storm that I still think about today... and for other storms in the future. Ryan1000 22:21, October 13, 2010 (UTC) Signature tip You know you can change your signature in the My Preferences section which is located in the dropdown box if you put your cursor over your username. Darren23 | 17:28, July 13, 2011 (UTC) Help! The Atlantic forum went crazy! I made an edit, and somehow ruined the page. I don't know how to undo this, because it was saved already. P.S. Every other user will get a message. Hurricane Andrew (aka Andrew 444) 18:15, July 14, 2011 (UTC) Fixed. Hurricane Andrew (aka Andrew 444) 20:48, July 14, 2011 (UTC) Betting Pools Sorry, didn't see the S Hem. betting pools link at the Atlantic forum.Cyclone #10 21:36, August 28, 2011 (UTC) Archive Can you archive the EPac hurricane season for August? Thanks!10L. 00:52, September 5, 2011 (UTC) Wikia Down! This afternoon the wikia was down for some time...ideas? CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 20:08, September 5, 2011 (UTC) Me too! 10L. 20:28, September 5, 2011 (UTC) CS, you might as well tell SkyFury about that. 10L. 20:36, September 5, 2011 (UTC) ::I will. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 20:38, September 5, 2011 (UTC) :::Is "down" temporarily abandoned, not working, or out of control? Ryan1000 01:16, September 6, 2011 (UTC) ::::The server was down, meaning that the Wikia was unaccessable and showed a blank page. 01:18, September 6, 2011 (UTC) :::::It's working just fine for me, must've happened before I came here. If it doesn't work by tomorrow either, hopefully Eric can help fix it. Ryan1000 01:31, September 6, 2011 (UTC) ::::::The server was down from approx. 1 PM to 3 PM CDT. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 01:39, September 6, 2011 (UTC) :::::::We don't know if it may be down again though. Let's hope it won't. Ryan1000 01:42, September 6, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::Sorry to but in on someones talkpage but the connection from the website to the datacenter was down. If it's fixed now it should be fixed for a while and it is out of SkyFury's control as it was a Wikia wide problem. Yqt1001 02:36, September 6, 2011 (UTC) Re: Betting pools That's a good question Ryan. I'm kinda hoping it doesn't come to that, but with the way this season has gone, it's not looking promising that we'll get a stronger one. I think a case could be made for either one. Irene certainly seemed to be the most powerful (in other words, had the greatest destructive potential), and the benchmark is usually pressure and not winds. So I would say Irene has the edge, however that's a subjective determination. As far as an objective solution, I think a split title, like you suggested, is a fair idea. We could make it creative and do a baseball kind of thing where they cite "champions" in each major stat (batting champ, HR champ, ERA champ, etc). So we could say Irene was the "SLP champion" and Katia was the winds champ. I think that would be kind of cool. I'm regretting now that I never took part in the betting pools because it is fun, as much as I hate predicting. I'll have to make sure and do that before next season. However I am looking forward to hosting the Hall of Fame voting at the end of the year, assuming we still want to do that. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 06:28, September 21, 2011 (UTC) Eric, what I meant was Katia had higher winds, but Irene had a lower pressure. In a way, it's kind of like how Al Gore lost the 2000 U.S. presidential election to George Bush despite having more votes from the people(higher winds). The electoral votes(pressure) are what truly matter, but people voting also makes a difference. I don't think it's fair to exclude Katia because it technically was "stronger" than Irene(I mean, if Katia was heading towards the east coast with 135 mph winds, it would scare them a lot more than one with 120 mph winds because they aren't worried about pressure as much as winds), but pressure and winds are not directly related; the pressure gradient is what helps determine that. Storms can have a weaker than normal pressure gradient during their weakening stages than normal hurricanes of their intensity, and the gradient is much weaker in WPac than it is in NAtl and EPac because the monsoon trough is so thick, which helps explain why some of the strongest storms ever known have formed there(Tip, Gay, Ivan, Joan, Keith), but the winds don't directly corelate with that. My solution is we make a winner in winds(Katia) and a winner in pressure(Irene) as I said on your talk page, because that's fair for both sides. 'Ryan1000' 20:01, September 21, 2011 (UTC) I know what you meant, Ryan. I don't know why you think I'm confused. I agreed with you that a split title would be a good idea. I said that we could do a baseball kind of thing where we have a champion for each stat. And yeah, I know about the pressure difference between the WPac and ATL. That's due to monsoonal influences and the massive cauldron of warm water over there that allows storms to grow much larger and therefore deeper. This is part of the reason why Hurricane Wilma became so intense. It was very much like a West Pacific typhoon in that it was born from a monsoon trough and had an incredibly deep pressure gradient right from the start. There have been some concerns raised that this pattern might occur again this year. That'll be interesting to watch. I've been studying tropical cyclones in all basins for six years, Ryan, this isn't my first rodeo :) -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:41, September 23, 2011 (UTC) Well, then I guess we'll have to wait until 2011 ends to see what happens with that. I know seasons can have had slow starts but rapid ends. 1994 was a good example with Gordon. 1912 was another, with the season's first and only major in November, reaching C3 on the 17th, the latest first MH of any season in Atlantic basin history(it was perhaps the worst in Jamacia's history, with 100 deaths on the island). Paloma could have stolen the title of Ike/Gustav if it pumped up just a little bit more in November 2008, but if, by January 1st, 2012, we do not have a winner for both titles, then we will make a seperate one for each. We can't assume this year won't have any monsters in October and November, so it may still be too soon to tell. As of now though, 2011 is just disappointing me. I never thought we would get so lucky this year. I actually thought we could have one of the worst hurricane seasons ever this year, but now i'm really starting to doubt we will get anything bad outside of Irene at all. 'Ryan1000' 20:10, September 23, 2011 (UTC) And that's bad? Yeah, it's really cool seeing the power of nature, watching those reporters standing out in the wind and the rain and seeing that incredible footage. As a guy who's been fascinated with hurricanes since childhood, that's the kind of thing you live for. But it's really hard watching people's lives get torn apart. It's nice when you get the awesome experience of the storm making landfall but the aftermath turns out not to be so bad (ex: Dolly 2008). So I'm glad the season hasn't been as bad as everyone was expecting it to be. I am, however, disappointed at the massive power outage we've had this season. I was having a blast last year watching all those monsters curve out to sea, because then you can cheer for them to get as strong as they want. But this year, we've had an ungodly amount of shear. We're developing a La Nina for God's sake, the shear should be pretty low. We've had a lot of storms but virtually none of them have done anything. All this said, Irene was a once in a lifetime experience. I don't think I'll ever forget seeing Grand Central Station completely abandoned, Atlantic City casinos empty, Times Square and the streets of Manhattan virtually deserted, and storm surge running through Battery Park. That entire week leading up to Irene's landfall was nothing short of surreal. It felt like something out of The Day After Tomorrow. And as devastating as it was, we got really, really lucky. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 09:10, September 24, 2011 (UTC) I don't use past seasons as an indicator of what's to come because I mentioned earlier no two seasons are exactly alike. Instead of a 2005, we got a 2007. I guess La Nina years can be bad for storms too. In 2007, last year, and this year we had a ton of storms form, but most of them are weak and stay at sea. In 2010, we had 12 hurricanes, but of the 5 hurricanes we had in October, most of them were short-lived, and most of the peak season hurricanes didn't live exceptionally long either last year(aside from Earl and Igor). I think La Nina can be just as bad for storms as El Nino can be helpful(2007 vs 2004). So despite the fact we are in an active period, we can't exactly see a trend or draw conclusions from what we have seen thus far. 'Ryan1000' 12:47, September 24, 2011 (UTC) While I agree that each season is unique, I disagree with your arguments on ENSO. The only reason we didn't think 2010 was a bad year was because the US didn't get hit. The activity was incredible. From last August all the way through September, the level of activity defied belief. It was just one after another. I actually think that was at least part of why the US was spared. After the first storm recurved, the others followed in such quick succession that the Atlantic ridge never had time to rebuild and remained weak. So each storm followed the other out to sea. This year has been similar to 2007 with really only two significant hurricanes (though Dean + Felix >> Irene + Katia) and pervasive and inexplicably high shear. In 2007, we were coming off an El Nino winter, so the sluggish activity kind of made sense. In 2004, the El Nino was quickly turning into La Nina by July. And I still haven't figured out exactly what happened in 2004 and 2005 to make them so bad. Wind shear almost entirely vanished for a year and a half. We've never had a two year stretch like that in history. This year is more inexplicable because we should be in an ENSO neutral or early La Nina pattern. And we've had a lot of storms, but nearly all of them have struggled with wind shear. The TUTT is roaring this year, and that's bringing a steady supply of moderate to strong wind shear right into the MDR. I don't have a clue why the TUTT is so strong this year. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:22, September 25, 2011 (UTC) What, has the shear in the Atlantic just lead almost every single storm to it's doom in some kind of death row? 2007 wasn't exactly like this year; we had 3 big storms that year, vs one this year, and Irene alone caused more damage than Dean, Felix, and Noel combined(but they were much more widespread individually). The thing about 2007 is we had 2 hurricanes for every 5 named storms, and only Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, and Melissa were pathetic amongst all of the named storms that year. This year I wouldn't be surprised if we get one 'cane for every 6 storms. We had more failures this year than we know what to do with. It goes to show that in even an active or inactive season, one storm can make the season memorable for a long time to come. In this year's case, it was Irene. We could have suffered much worse this year than we otherwise did. If the shear was the same it was last year this year, we would have had a much more severe season. The Bermuda High isn't necessarily recurving the storms out to sea this year(aside from Katia and Maria); it's just that the shear over the Atlantic has been too hostile to let anything develop. That's good for most of the Atlantic basin. Last year was about the opposite of this year. The shear was very low, and we got 12 hurricanes and 5 majors, but the Bermuda High was strong enough to recurve most of the storms away from the U.S, but 2010 was devastating elsewhere across the Atlantic basin, particularly in Mexico, and to a lesser extent(though still severely) Newfoundland and St. Lucia. I know that La Nina usually promotes ATL and El Nino hinders us, but there are exceptions to that rule. 2004 was an El Nino year, but it seriously didn't look like it, to be honest, and 2007, though being a La Nina, had a below average ACE for it's activity, and we could have seen much worse if it wasn't for the shear that year and high pressure systems placed. Same with last year and the lack of U.S. hurricanes despite the favorable conditions. Can we say that we will have bad seasons for the U.S. during La Nina years? No(2010). Can we say we won't in El Nino years? Neither(1992). I recommend we still wait until the end of the season(I mean, my talk page isn't necessarily it's own forum; this is partially why I made the Worldwide activity discussion page earlier this year; it's called WAD on the TCBasinNav table). I stil don't know whether or not a bad storm will come this October or November, but if those months stay dead, then we can call 2011 a season. 'Ryan1000' 04:06, September 26, 2011 (UTC) Forums Should we split the SHEM forums after the season is over? That might be a bit less confusing. Thanks! 'Cyclone10' Talk Hurricane 02:14,12/7/2011 Told you to never put a name storm 100% in retirement another example this year the name Yasi was not retired even with all the damaged it caused Allanjeffs 05:34, December 7, 2011 (UTC) Good point. We might want to do that for 2013 forums. 'Cyclone10' Talk Hurricane 21:03,12/7/2011 Adoption? Hi. I overheard you talking to Yqt. If you want to adopt this wiki, you could go Here. Make sure it's past 60 days since Eric made his last post. --Cy10 02:16, January 10, 2012 (UTC) It has been 50 days since Eric last edited FYI. Andrew444TalkBlog 02:46, January 10, 2012 (UTC) Yeah, it was just a past thing I came across, it's not a big deal now. We can wait a bit. I'd be willing to apply for admin duties, but not right now. Maybe a bit later. Eric is likely to not be back until next year or for a statement or two about retirements of 2011 (like he did in 2010), so i've got plenty of time to think about it. If I need to wait two months or so, then there's no need to rush. I have lots of work to do now anyways. I'll be back tomorrow. 'Ryan1000' 02:58, January 10, 2012 (UTC) :Might as well post here. I would be fine of letting Ryan inherit the Wiki as long as SkyFury is actually inactive and he is willing to give the keys over. Oh and extra support for Ryan if he lets me be an admin. ;) Also about the articles, I believe that Wikipedia is free for anybody to use and is not a copyright infringement? And besides, some of the articles aren't taken from Wikipedia and it's nice to have the option to test out editing skills. Yqt1001 20:10, January 10, 2012 (UTC) :For me the best choice if SKYFURY is really inactive I think Ryan will be the best choice not saying than anyone here is not good for the position but i think he is the best choiceAllanjeffs 20:32, January 10, 2012 (UTC) ::Eric is only around during the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season or so (August to October, sometimes June, July, or November), but i'm here year round, just in case anything else goes out of hand, I'll be there to fix it, or help reach a consensus at anytime. TBH, i'm waiting for Eric to tell us what to do with the hall of fame elections he was talking about last year. I was really exited about it, but I guess he has a ton of work to do and can't help but postpone it for now. @Yqt:Eric said on his talk page there is no rule for the number of admins for a wiki. Andrew wanted to apply, but there can be as many admins as possible for any wiki AFAIK. You could apply too, you know. I don't think there's a 1 or 2 admin rule. In terms of forecasting storms, I generally prefer to go on the conservative side of forecasting like NHC does, but I also have a lot of knowledge of storm history in the tropics and I also prefer common sense over logic most of the time, though not always. Cyclone10, if I have to wait a few days before I can register for admin duties, that'll be fine by me, because I don't think we'll get a TON of visitors here(Eric included) until the Atlantic kicks into gear anyways. But things can get out of hand here outside of the actual Atlantic hurricane season, and since i'm pretty much always here, I'll be able to help fix any unmoderated content. 'Ryan1000''' 00:47, January 11, 2012 (UTC)